Feed composition, liquids recovery, plant fuel, product specification, capital and offtake brought into one study basis and one financial model, with every input marked measured, vendor-stated or assumed.
Outcome
Objective met4 of 4 success criteria. Read the conclusionA small-scale LNG project looked attractive when each assumption was viewed on its own. The feed composition, liquids recovery, plant fuel, product specification, availability and offtake terms had been developed by different parties at different times. The financial model had inherited the optimistic version of each, and the mass balance did not close.
We rebuilt the feed gas and product yield basis and tied it to the material and energy balance, the capital and operating cost assumptions, the cash flows and the sensitivities. Each input was marked measured, vendor-stated or assumed. The model carried explicit reconciliation and acceptance items. The study listed which inputs needed a laboratory analysis, which needed an equipment manufacturer's guarantee and which needed a signed agreement, and the order in which to get them.
The screening case was separated from an investment-ready case, with the gaps between them named. Modelled returns were presented as provisional until the feed gas analysis, the guarantees and the offtake terms existed. The developer's next spend went on measurements and agreements rather than a more detailed model.
The objective was a gas balance that closed and a financial model whose inputs were traceable. Both were achieved at Issue 02. Plant fuel and liquids recovery reconcile to the yield basis, every input carries one of three classes and a source, and the evidence list became the developer's work plan for the next stage.
| Success criterion | Met | How it was achieved |
|---|---|---|
| iMass and energy balance closes from feed to product | Met | Balance closed at Issue 02 with plant fuel and liquids recovery reconciled to the yield basis |
| iiEvery model input classified and traceable to its source | Met | Input register issued with the three classes and the source for each |
| iiiReturns presented with the assumptions that would change them | Met | Sensitivity table issued on feed composition, availability, capital class and offtake price |
| ivA dated list of the evidence needed before the case can be called bankable | Met | Evidence list issued and adopted as the developer's work plan for the next stage |
Deliverables
Evidence note
Project development study material prepared by Assos Tech. Not a claim of plant delivery, financing, production or certified returns. Rates, returns and project identifiers not shown.
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